Napkin Math

Profit and power in technology.

Jun 27, 2023

Shopping for AI Shovels: The MosaicML Acquisition

Why would Databricks spend $1.3B?

Jan 6, 2022

What the hell is going on with Lambda School?

The complicated business of selling social good

Jul 9, 2024

Paramount’s Dilemma: Content Isn’t King—Distribution Is

Half a century removed from its glory days, the Hollywood giant has a new rescue plan

Jul 16, 2021

How Free to Play Video Games are Forced to Make Addicts

A Case Study on Market Structures and Harm

Dec 8, 2022

The Primary Trends I’m Investing In Next Year

China, boring AI, vertical SaaS, and Apple's power

Jun 3, 2020

Curated: Expert Shopping Advice, Online

A three-sided marketplace to bring specialty retail to the internet

Jun 22, 2022

Are We Really Addicted?

An interview with Nir Eyal

Apr 5, 2022

Twitter’s Shot at Becoming a Meme Stock

It’s Musk's world and we’re just tweeting in it

Dec 7, 2023

The Impossibility of Being Charlie

RIP to nerd Jesus

Sep 9, 2021

Tech stocks’ favorite lie to investors

How the LTV/CAC ratio is manipulated to take advantage of retail investors

Sep 28, 2023

The Double Bind Theory—Or Why Sensationalism (Unfortunately) Works

If you want to win, you gotta spike

Feb 27, 2024

What the Media Is Getting Wrong About AI

The future must be built on truth

Nov 16, 2023

COGS: How I Bankrupted MoviePass

An intuitive explainer for how to lose money and win anyway

Jan 9, 2025

More Output, Less Effort

8 pieces of technology that have dramatically improved my life

Jan 31, 2022

Spotify’s Quest to Own Your Ear

A Napkin Math and Trapital Production

Dec 5, 2023

Death of a Flywheel

Amazon and Berkshire Hathaway got really big. Here’s why it might kill them.

May 28, 2021

ITDA: The Gamification of Financial Statements

How governments and companies are engaged in mutual manipulation

Jul 23, 2020

Want to Become a Unicorn? Buy it, Don’t Build it

How Amazon Marketplace works, how Thrasio built a unicorn, the platform risk associated with the strategy, and regulation concerns.

Jul 30, 2024

Tinder Is Way More Important Than You Think

The success of a dating app has huge implications for the U.S. economy

Feb 22, 2024

AI and the Vision Pro Don’t Need a Killer App

Software that drives hardware adoption is rarer than you think

Jun 13, 2024

The AGI-in-2027 Thesis

Some researchers are convinced that we are on the cusp of superintelligence. Are they right?

Sep 12, 2024

The Button Problem of AI

What’s the real reason AI hasn’t yet delivered on its hype?

May 7, 2024

The Right Kind of Asshole

A founder’s personality can differentiate them—or destroy them

Aug 25, 2022

Finance is Narrative Not Numbers

The Subtle Art of Manipulating CFOs