Napkin Math

Profit and power in technology.

Mar 10, 2022

How To Get Leverage On Your Ideas

The Power Output Equation

Jan 9, 2025

More Output, Less Effort

8 pieces of technology that have dramatically improved my life

Sep 28, 2023

The Double Bind Theory—Or Why Sensationalism (Unfortunately) Works

If you want to win, you gotta spike

Dec 5, 2023

Death of a Flywheel

Amazon and Berkshire Hathaway got really big. Here’s why it might kill them.

Aug 24, 2023

A TikTok Competitor Is About to IPO—And It’s Deeply Suspicious

Triller's S1 raises questions about its numbers

Sep 9, 2021

Tech stocks’ favorite lie to investors

How the LTV/CAC ratio is manipulated to take advantage of retail investors

Apr 13, 2021

Announcing Napkin Math Fiscal Year 2021

After a short break, Napkin Math returns with a new writer

Jan 31, 2022

Spotify’s Quest to Own Your Ear

A Napkin Math and Trapital Production

Dec 8, 2022

The Primary Trends I’m Investing In Next Year

China, boring AI, vertical SaaS, and Apple's power

Jul 23, 2020

Want to Become a Unicorn? Buy it, Don’t Build it

How Amazon Marketplace works, how Thrasio built a unicorn, the platform risk associated with the strategy, and regulation concerns.

May 28, 2021

ITDA: The Gamification of Financial Statements

How governments and companies are engaged in mutual manipulation

Jun 13, 2024

The AGI-in-2027 Thesis

Some researchers are convinced that we are on the cusp of superintelligence. Are they right?

Aug 13, 2021

Is Facebook Fixable

A Review of An Ugly Truth

Oct 6, 2022

The Face That AI Built

My explorations in image generation

Jul 13, 2023

OpenAI’s Code Interpreter Is About to Remake Finance

Get in, loser—we’re disrupting Oracle

Aug 13, 2024

The Addiction Economy

Addicted, overwhelmed, oversubscribed: How technology hooked the world

Jun 3, 2020

Curated: Expert Shopping Advice, Online

A three-sided marketplace to bring specialty retail to the internet

Jun 22, 2022

Are We Really Addicted?

An interview with Nir Eyal

Jan 27, 2022

Will Tokens Replace Equity?

The Weird Future Ahead

Feb 22, 2024

AI and the Vision Pro Don’t Need a Killer App

Software that drives hardware adoption is rarer than you think

May 9, 2024

Patreon Should Buy Substack to Save Creators

The solution to the problem of social media is to build something better

Jan 16, 2025

God Is in the Bubbles

The politics of progress has a new manual

Jul 8, 2020

The Future of Fitness: lululemon Buys Mirror

Why subscription hardware is better than hardware, the cross-selling opportunity, how Mirror could lead to a connected home, and why Mirror is a call option for Lululemon.

Jun 11, 2024

Apple’s AI Evolution: Built-in AI, Supercharged Siri, and Ecosystem Lock-in

Maybe the new world is the same as the old