Napkin Math

Business breakdowns, by the numbers.

Feb 5, 2021

Revenue: It’s Simple, Until It Isn’t

Finally, a clear explanation of bookings, billings and revenue

Jan 30, 2021

A Local News Revival

How product, marketing, and cost innovations create a massive opportunity

Jan 7, 2021

My Favorite Company Deep Dives of 2020

Taking a look at the best companies deep dives of the past year, including posts on Fiverr/Upwork, Carta, Tyler Corporation, CostCo and more

Dec 8, 2020

How Live-streaming Ecommerce Works in China

In China, livestreaming has changed eCommerce. Learn about how it works, what the hosts do during the steam, and how it could impact American eCommerce.

Dec 1, 2020

Should you invest in Wish? An S-1 Analysis

A look inside the S-1 of Wish. Included is the background of Wish, a look at their margins, how the universal postal union is changing their cost structure, how their CAC is rising and if they are viable long-term.

Nov 12, 2020

Cash Conversion Cycle: Bridging the Gap Between Profitability & Cash Flow

What is the Cash Conversion Cycle and why is it useful? In this post, we discuss the Cash Conversion Cycle formula, an example calculation, and a comparison of public retailer IPOs.

Nov 6, 2020

Your Uncle Is Still Your Uncle: Ant Pulls Its IPO

Ant's IPO has been taken down. What happened, what do you need to know and what should we expect to see next?

Nov 4, 2020

Can Political Betting Markets Predict Election Outcomes?

Polls and pundits don't do a good job of predicting election results. But what about prediction markets? In this post, we discuss what makes a good market and what could cause it to be wrong.

Oct 30, 2020

What You Need To Know About The Ant Financial IPO

The largest IPO in history is happening in China with Ant Financial. In this post, we discuss all the services Ant Financial provides and what to expect in the future from Ant.

Oct 8, 2020

Nike: Direct Relationships & Digital Penetration

Nike just released their latest earnings report. We dive into their "Consumer Direct Offense" strategy, how they combined their brand marketing with technology.

Sep 26, 2020

Substack Rhymes With Medium

Substack can't decide if it's a CMS or a media brand. Neither could Medium. Their indecision will likely lead to similar outcomes.

Sep 18, 2020

How Chegg Grew Their Share Price 20x In Four Years

Chegg grew their stock price from under $10 to over $85. They did it by changing their business model from the ground up and investing in digital media content.

Sep 9, 2020

First Steps to Buy A School Bus Company

Last week I pitched the idea of buying a school bus operator. This week I tell you how to do it.

Sep 4, 2020

The Investment Opportunity in School Bus Operators

Many schools have closed, representing a unique opportunity to buy school bus operators. With a strong moat, now might be the right time to buy.

Aug 28, 2020

Uber and Lyft Live Once Again

What drivers think of AB 5, why it was written, and the pricing differences between services

Aug 25, 2020

The Quest for Monopoly

A history of stock market exchanges: from fragmentation to monopoly, monopoly to fragmentation and back again.

Aug 20, 2020

How AB 5 Will Break Uber’s Business

The difference between a contractor and an employee, what Uber's existing business looks like and how AB5 will impact their financials.

Aug 13, 2020

Sometimes You’re The Datadog, Sometimes You’re The Hydrant

The history of cloud computing, how DevOps and Observability became so big, and the fate of Datadog

Aug 7, 2020

New York Times: Investing In The Long Term

A review of the Q2 earnings: growth in digital subscriptions, a fall in advertising, and a decline in APRU due to long-term investing.

Aug 5, 2020

Intangible Assets: The Invisible Value Driver

Book review of The End of Accounting: there are four problems with current financial statements and intangible assets are the biggest reason why.

Jul 30, 2020

GPT-3 Will Accelerate The Privatization of Internet Communities

What GPT-3 is, GPT-3's capabilities, if GPT-3 will replace jobs, and how it affects social media.

Jul 23, 2020

Want to Become a Unicorn? Buy it, Don’t Build it

How Amazon Marketplace works, how Thrasio built a unicorn, the platform risk associated with the strategy, and regulation concerns.

Jul 15, 2020

How Costco Convinces Brands to Cannibalize Themselves

An unlikely marriage where both sides win

Jul 8, 2020

The Future of Fitness: lululemon Buys Mirror

Why subscription hardware is better than hardware, the cross-selling opportunity, how Mirror could lead to a connected home, and why Mirror is a call option for Lululemon.